000
WTPZ41 KNHC 030847
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Orlene Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162022
300 AM MDT Mon Oct 03 2022
 
Orlene's cloud pattern has been becoming less organized, likely due 
to the influence of strong southwesterly shear associated with a 
broad upper-level trough near Baja California. Inner-core 
convection has been gradually diminishing, but there are still some 
strong convective bands around the center.  Upper-level outflow is 
restricted over the western portion of the circulation as a 
result of the shear.  The current intensity estimate is set to 85 
kt based on a blend of subjective and objective Dvorak T-numbers, 
but is more uncertain than usual.

Although the unfavorable shear should continue to affect the 
cyclone, Orlene will moving over very warm waters today which 
should help the system maintain some of its intensity up to 
landfall.  The Decay-SHIPS model guidance indicates that Orlene 
will still be a hurricane when it makes landfall later today, and 
the official forecast shows this as well.  After Orlene makes 
landfall, the small cyclone is likely to quickly weaken over the 
mountainous terrain of Mexico, and it should dissipate within 1-2 
days.   

Orlene continues to move just east of due north with an estimated 
initial motion of 010/8 kt.  There is basically no change to the 
track forecast reasoning.  The system should continue to be steered 
by the flow on the western side of a mid-level ridge until it makes 
landfall on the coast of Mexico within the Hurricane Warning area 
in less than a day.  The official track forecast is similar to the 
previous NHC prediction and is roughly in the middle of the fairly 
tightly clustered dynamical track guidance envelope. 

Key Messages:
 
1. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for a portion of west-central 
mainland Mexico, where hurricane conditions are expected later 
today with tropical storm conditions beginning this morning. 
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to 
completion.
 
2. A dangerous storm surge is likely to cause flooding along 
the coast of mainland Mexico in the warning area in regions of 
onshore winds.
 
3. Heavy rainfall from Orlene is expected to lead to flash flooding,
as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain of
southwest Mexico through Tuesday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/0900Z 22.1N 106.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 22.9N 106.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  04/0600Z 23.5N 106.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 36H  04/1800Z 24.0N 106.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  05/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch