000
WTPZ41 KNHC 021446
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Orlene Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162022
900 AM MDT Sun Oct 02 2022
 
The satellite presentation of Orlene has degraded since early this 
morning.  It appears that an increase in southwestern shear may 
have begun, as the eye has become cloud filled. Subjective satellite 
classifications from TAFB and SAB were T5.5 (102 kt), and objective 
estimates range from 112 to 120 kt.  Based on the degraded 
satellite presentation, the initial intensity has been reduced to 
110 kt.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently 
en route to investigate the hurricane, and should provide 
additional information on the strength and size of the wind field 
early this afternoon.
 
Orlene has likely peaked in intensity.  Although the sea surface
temperatures remain warm along the forecast track, increasing
southwesterly vertical wind shear during the next 24 to 36 hours
is likely to cause the small hurricane to weaken.  However, Orlene 
is forecast to pass near or over the Islas Marias as a strong 
hurricane late tonight or early Monday, and reach the coast of 
mainland Mexico has a hurricane by late Monday or Monday night. 
After landfall, rapid weakening is expected and the low-level 
center should dissipate over the mountainous terrain of 
southwestern Mexico in 60-72 hours.
 
Orlene has continued to move just east of due north or 005/7 kt.
The hurricane is being steered between a mid-level ridge to its
east and a broad trough over northwestern Mexico.  These steering
currents should cause Orlene to bend north-northeastward later
today and it should then continue on that general heading until
landfall in southwestern Mexico.  The latest NHC track forecast is
slightly west of the previous advisory, and lies close to a blend of
the GFS and ECMWF models (GFEX).  This is a little to the right of 
the other simple and corrected consensus models.  The GFS remains 
significantly farther right and faster than the remainder of the 
guidance. 
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Islas Marias tonight,
with tropical storm conditions beginning today. A Hurricane
Warning is in effect for a portion of west-central mainland Mexico,
where hurricane conditions are expected on Monday with tropical
storm conditions beginning early Monday.  Preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion.
 
2. Heavy rainfall from Orlene is expected to lead to flash flooding,
as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain of
southwestern Mexico into Tuesday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/1500Z 19.6N 106.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 20.6N 106.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 21.7N 106.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 22.6N 106.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 23.3N 105.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 60H  05/0000Z 23.9N 105.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  05/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown