000
WTPZ41 KNHC 012358
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Orlene Special Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162022
600 PM MDT Sat Oct 01 2022
 
The satellite presentation of Orlene has quickly improved during the
past several hours. A warm and well-defined eye has emerged in
GOES-17 satellite imagery, surrounded by a solid ring of deep
convection with infrared cloud tops colder than -70 degrees Celsius.
The initial intensity is set at 90 kt for this advisory based on
recent satellite intensity estimates.
 
Based on the higher initial intensity, the near-term intensity 
forecast has been raised to show additional strengthening in the 
next 12-24 h while environmental conditions remain conducive for 
intensification. No changes were made to the track forecast with 
this special advisory.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Islas Marias Sunday
night, with tropical storm conditions beginning late Sunday.
Hurricane conditions are possible over portions of west-central
mainland Mexico starting on Monday.  Tropical storm conditions are
expected within the tropical storm warning area along the
west-central coast of Mexico on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible over other portions of southwestern and west-central
Mexico in the tropical storm watch area tonight or Sunday.
 
2. Heavy rainfall from Orlene is expected to lead to flash flooding,
as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain of
southwest Mexico into Monday evening.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0000Z 18.2N 107.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 18.6N 107.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 19.7N 106.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 20.9N 106.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 22.1N 106.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  04/0600Z 23.1N 105.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 72H  04/1800Z 24.1N 105.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 96H  05/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart