000 WTPZ41 KNHC 011450 TCDEP1 Hurricane Orlene Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022 900 AM MDT Sat Oct 01 2022 Conventional satellite imagery and a recent SSM/IS overpass indicate that Orlene is becoming better organized, with the central convection becoming more symmetric and starting to develop into an eyewall. There have also been hints of an eye on infrared imagery. Satellite intensity estimates at 12Z were in the 55-65 kt range, and since that time estimates from the CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique have increased to over 70 kt. Based on this data, Orlene is upgraded to a hurricane with an initial intensity of 65 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Orlene later today. Orlene should be in a moist and light-shear environment for about the next 24 h, and with the increased core organization steady to rapid intensification is expected. The new intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity of 80 kt in about 24 h. After that, strong southwesterly shear should cause steady to rapid weakening until landfall in Mexico. This should be followed by dissipation over the mountains of northwestern Mexico between 72-96 h. While it cannot be ruled out that Orlene could reach mainland Mexico as a hurricane, the chances of that have decreased since yesterday based on the current trends and guidance. The new intensity forecast has some adjustments from the previous forecast and lies near or at the upper edge of the intensity guidance. Orlene continues moving slowly northward at 360/4 kt, to the west of a mid-level ridge. After about 12 h, the cyclone should turn north-northeastward in the flow between this ridge and an upper-level trough seen in water vapor imagery over northwestern Mexico and the northern Baja California peninsula. This north-northeastward motion is forecast to continue until Orlene dissipates over mainland Mexico. The track guidance is fairly tightly clustered around this track, although the GFS is a bit to the right of the other models. The new forecast track is close to the various consensus models and is just a little to the left of the previous forecast. Based on the the forecast track, intensity, and wind radii, a Hurricane Warning has been issued for Las Islas Marias. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Islas Marias Sunday night, with tropical storm conditions beginning late Sunday. Hurricane conditions are possible over portions of the west-central mainland Mexico starting on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area along the west-central coast of Mexico on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible over other portions of southwestern and west-central Mexico in the tropical storm watch area tonight or Sunday. 2. Heavy rainfall from Orlene is expected to lead to flash flooding, as well as possible landslides in areas of rugged terrain in Southwest Mexico through Monday evening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 17.6N 107.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 18.3N 107.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 19.2N 106.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 20.5N 106.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 21.6N 106.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 04/0000Z 22.8N 105.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 72H 04/1200Z 24.0N 105.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven