000
WTPZ41 KNHC 300232
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Storm Orlene Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162022
900 PM MDT Thu Sep 29 2022
 
Orlene has improved in satellite presentation over the past several 
hours.  There is a burst of deep convection with an expanding 
central dense overcast and cloud top temperatures below -80 degrees 
C.  Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates have been increasing 
since the last advisory and the initial intensity has been raised to 
45 kt to represent a blend of the classifications.

The storm is moving west-northwest at 6 kt on the southwestern 
edge of a mid-level ridge over Mexico.  Orlene is expected to turn 
northwestward and northward within a day or so as it reaches the 
western edge of the ridge.  Beyond a day, the cyclone is forecast 
to gradually turn north-northeastward in the flow between an 
upper-level trough over northwestern Mexico and the northern Baja 
California peninsula until landfall by 96 h.  The GFS is still 
on the faster and eastern side of model guidance envelope with the 
other models slower and farther west.  The latest official forecast 
has shifted east from the previous advisory and is west of the 
consensus aids.

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are expected to be conducive for 
strengthening for the next couple of days or so.  Statistical model 
guidance forecasts vertical wind shear to be low and sea surface 
temperatures to be above 28 degrees C.  SHIPS-RII and DTOPS are 
showing above average potential for rapid intensification in the 
short term forecast.  Beyond three days, the vertical wind shear is 
expected to increase and potentially force in dry environmental air 
which would likely cause weakening of the relatively small storm.  
After landfall, Orlene is expected to rapidly weaken.  The NHC 
intensity forecast is very similar to the previous prediction and 
shows steady strengthening through 48 h, favoring the higher end 
of the model guidance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0300Z 15.6N 106.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  30/1200Z 16.3N 107.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  01/0000Z 17.1N 107.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  01/1200Z 17.9N 107.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  02/0000Z 18.8N 107.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  02/1200Z 20.0N 107.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  03/0000Z 21.3N 107.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  04/0000Z 23.7N 106.6W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
120H  05/0000Z 26.1N 106.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci