000 WTPZ41 KNHC 292042 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Orlene Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162022 300 PM MDT Thu Sep 29 2022 Satellite imagery shows that Orlene has the same convective features that it had earlier today, with a small central dense overcast and an outer convective band that wraps about three-quarters of the way around the central feature. However, both the central and outer convection have become more ragged, and some parts of the outer band currently look like an arc cloud. This structure suggests the possibility of some dry air near the cyclone despite an overall moist environment. A recent scatterometer overpass indicated maximum winds near 40 kt, and based on this data, the initial intensity remains 40 kt. This is also close to the 35 and 45 kt satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB, respectively. The initial motion is west-northwestward or 295/7 kt. Orlene is being steered by a mid-level ridge over Mexico, with the cyclone forecast to reach the western end of the ridge during the next 12-24 h. This should lead to a turn toward the northwest and north during this time-frame. After 24 h, Orlene should move generally northward to north-northeastward in the flow between the ridge and a mid- to upper-level trough currently developing over northwestern Mexico and the northern Baja California peninsula. The UKMET and ECMWF now forecast a stronger Orlene, and as a result they have joined the other models in forecasting a northward motion. However, those models have a slower forward speed than the GFS. Overall, the guidance envelope has shifted eastward since the last advisory, and the new forecast track is also adjusted eastward after 24 h. The new track lies near or to the west of the various consensus models, and it calls for the center to move into Mexico between 96-120 h. Orlene is forecast to be within an environment of moist air and low vertical wind shear for the 72 h or so. The guidance is now in good agreement on at least steady intensification during this time, and the various rapid intensification indices in the SHIPS model suggest rapid intensification is possible during the next 24-36 h. After 72 h, Orlene is likely to encounter increasing shear and a drier air mass, which should cause weakening. However, the GFS and HMON models continue to forecast the cyclone to make landfall as a hurricane, and the new intensity forecast again follows that scenario. It should be noted that Orlene is very small. This could allow the cyclone to more easily intensify when the environment is favorable, but it could also make it more vulnerable to subtly less favorable environmental conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 15.4N 106.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 16.0N 107.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 16.9N 108.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 17.6N 108.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 18.6N 108.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 02/0600Z 19.6N 108.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 20.8N 107.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 23.5N 107.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 04/1800Z 26.1N 106.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven