000
WTPZ41 KNHC 290832
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Storm Orlene Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162022
400 AM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022
 
The depression has strengthened into Tropical Storm Orlene. A mass
of deep convection with cloud tops as cold as -80 degrees C has
persisted over the center of the cyclone for the past several hours.
In addition, a pair of recent ASCAT overpasses showed 
non-rain-flagged wind vectors of 31 kt and some believable vectors 
of 36 kt. Based on this, the initial advisory intensity has been 
set at 35 kt.
 
The cyclone is moving west-northwestward at 11 kt to the south of a 
mid-level ridge centered over Mexico. This motion is expected to 
continue for the next day or so. After that time, the track 
forecast becomes highly uncertain due to diverging track solutions. 
The UKMET and ECMWF indicate a cyclone that does not strengthen any 
further, and turns it westward in a couple of days in the low-level 
flow. The remaining model solutions indicate a stronger cyclone, 
and turn Orlene northward over the weekend as the system rounds the 
western periphery of the ridge. This scenario would bring the 
cyclone near the coast of Mexico or the southern Baja California 
peninsula early next week. The NHC track forecast favors the latter 
solution due to the favorable environmental conditions ahead of 
Orlene, and is in agreement with the TVCE consensus.
 
Orlene is forecast to be within an environment of low vertical wind 
shear and plenty of atmospheric moisture while over warm waters for 
the next few days. The majority of guidance, except the 
aforementioned ECMWF and UKMET indicate steady strengthening during 
this time, and bring Orlene to hurricane intensity by 36 h. After 
72 h the cyclone is expected to encounter drier air and strong 
southwesterly shear, which should induce a weakening trend.  The 
latest NHC intensity forecast is little changed from the previous 
one and is close to the multi-model consensus IVCN through 48 h and 
is a little below it thereafter.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0900Z 14.8N 104.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  29/1800Z 15.5N 106.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  30/0600Z 16.4N 107.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  30/1800Z 17.2N 108.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  01/0600Z 17.9N 108.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  01/1800Z 18.9N 108.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  02/0600Z 20.0N 108.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  03/0600Z 22.6N 107.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  04/0600Z 25.3N 107.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 
$$
Forecaster Latto