000 WTPZ41 KNHC 040837 TCDEP1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Javier Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022 200 AM PDT Sun Sep 04 2022 There has been no significant deep convection associated with Javier for nearly 16 hours, and it's doubtful that any organized deep convection will attempt a comeback. Accordingly, Javier has become a post-tropical remnant low and this will be the final NHC advisory on this system. The initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt, which is in agreement with subjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. The remnant low should continue to gradually spin down over cooler sea surface temperatures during the next several days, and the deterministic models indicate that the surface circulation will become a trough of low pressure toward the end of the week. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and is close to the intensity model consensus. The low continues to move away from the Baja California peninsula and the initial motion estimate is 295/13 kt. The cyclone should turn westward soon in the low-level trade flow as a shallow remnant low and maintain this general heading until it dissipates in 5 days. This is the final NHC advisory on Javier. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 27.2N 118.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 04/1800Z 27.8N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 05/0600Z 27.9N 123.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/1800Z 27.6N 125.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/0600Z 27.1N 128.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 06/1800Z 26.8N 130.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/0600Z 26.6N 131.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/0600Z 26.5N 133.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts