000
WTPZ41 KNHC 031450
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Storm Javier Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112022
900 AM MDT Sat Sep 03 2022
 
The satellite presentation of Javier has continued to deteriorate 
over the past few hours.  The deep convective burst noted in the 
previous discussion has rotated to the southern portion of the 
circulation and cloud top temperatures have warmed to above -70 
degrees C.  Microwave and infrared imagery show the northern half 
of the semicircle to be devoid of any deep convection.  A blend of 
the objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates support 
lowering the intensity to 40 kt for this advisory.  

Javier appears to have begun its weakening trend.  The system has 
crossed over waters cooler than 26 degrees C and the sea surface 
temperatures along the forecast track are expected to be 
progressively colder.  Atmospheric conditions are also predicted to 
not be conducive for any additional strengthening.  Global models 
suggest that the vertical wind shear should increase and the 
environmental moisture to decrease within a day.  Based on this 
information and guidance, the official forecast now shows Javier 
becoming a post-tropical cyclone in 24 hours and weakening to a 
remnant within two days.

The initial motion is estimated to be 325 degrees at 13 kt.  Though 
the center of Javier appears to have shifted slightly to the 
north, the storm is expected to be steered northwestward by a 
mid-level ridge to its northeast.  Within a day or less, model 
guidance agrees that the ridge should turn Javier to the 
west-northwest.  Low-level tradewinds are expected to turn a 
weakening Javier to the west and west-southwest beyond 48 hours.  
The NHC track forecast is shifted slightly northward from the 
previous advisory prediction and is close the model consensus aids.

Although the NHC forecast wind radii do not explicitly reach the 
coast of Mexico, any additional eastward or northward deviations 
from the official track forecast could result in 
tropical-storm-force winds reaching portions of Baja California 
Sur, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Although the center is expected to stay offshore, heavy rainfall
from Tropical Storm Javier could lead to localized flash flooding in
Baja California Sur.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of Baja
California Sur through today. A Tropical Storm Watch remains in
effect.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/1500Z 25.1N 114.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 26.4N 116.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 27.3N 119.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  05/0000Z 27.7N 121.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  05/1200Z 27.7N 124.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  06/0000Z 27.4N 126.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  06/1200Z 27.1N 129.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/1200Z 26.6N 132.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  08/1200Z 26.2N 134.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci/Reinhart