000 WTPZ41 KNHC 030244 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Javier Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112022 900 PM MDT Fri Sep 02 2022 AMSR microwave imagery that arrived after the issuance of the previous advisory indicated that Javier's center was slightly northeast of previous estimates. The microwave imagery also showed that the Tropical Storm still has a broad center, with more recent visible imagery suggesting that multiple swirls are rotating around a mean center. Despite the cyclone's broad organization, subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased and now support a higher initial intensity of 45 kt. Slight additional strengthening is possible overnight before Javier moves over much cooler waters and begins to weaken on Saturday. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS, HWRF, and ECMWF models indicate the cyclone will lose all deep convection and become a remnant low in about 36 h, which is reflected in the latest NHC forecast. No changes of note were made to the official intensity forecast. Due to the relocation of Javier's initial position to the northeast, the NHC track forecast has also been adjusted in that direction. Otherwise, there has been no change in the thinking behind the track forecast. The tropical storm appears to have accelerated slightly and now has an initial motion estimate of 330/12 kt. A mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. should steer Javier generally parallel to the coast of the Baja California peninsula for the next day or so. The ridge is then forecast to build westward as Javier weakens, which should cause the cyclone to turn westward through the middle of next week. The NHC track forecast is based on the latest multi-model track consensus and is near the center of the guidance envelope. Although the NHC forecast wind radii do not explicitly reach the coast of Mexico, any additional eastward deviation from the official track forecast could result in tropical-storm-force winds reaching portions of Baja California Sur where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Although the center is expected to stay offshore, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Javier could lead to localized flash flooding in Baja California Sur. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of Baja California Sur through Saturday. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 23.1N 113.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 24.6N 114.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 26.2N 116.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 27.1N 118.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 05/0000Z 27.4N 121.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/1200Z 27.5N 124.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/0000Z 27.2N 126.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/0000Z 27.0N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/0000Z 26.6N 133.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky