854 
WTPZ41 KNHC 021447
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Storm Javier Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112022
900 AM MDT Fri Sep 02 2022
 
While quite broad, Javier continues to improve in organization. Deep 
convection has been forming near the center of the circulation with 
cold cloud tops below -80 degrees C.  The initial intensity is 
raised to 40 kt to represent a blend of the Dvorak satellite 
classifications from TAFB and SAB.
 
The storm is expected to be over warm waters (greater than 26 
degrees C) for another 24 hours.  Global models also indicate 
atmospheric conditions should be conducive for additional 
strengthening, with weak vertical wind shear and ample environmental 
moisture. But due to Javier's elongated structure, the official 
forecast calls for the system to only slightly intensify in the next 
day.  Thereafter, the cyclone is expected to weaken as it moves over 
cooler waters and enters a drier, more stable environment.  Javier 
is predicted to become a post-tropical cyclone in about 48 hours.
 
The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward at 8 kt.  The 
storm is moving along the periphery of a mid-level ridge to its 
north.  In the next couple of days, the ridge is expected to build 
westward and turn Javier toward the west-northwest and west.  The 
official forecast is again adjusted to the right of the previous 
forecast towards the multi-model consensus aids.  However, 
tropical-storm-force winds generated by the storm are predicted to 
remain offshore of the western coast of Baja California Sur.  
Associated outer rainbands and large swells are expected to affect 
portions of the southern and central Baja California peninsula coast 
during the next couple of days.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Although the center is expected to stay offshore, heavy rainfall
from Tropical Storm Javier could lead to localized flash flooding
in Baja California Sur.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/1500Z 20.7N 112.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 22.0N 113.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 23.8N 114.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 25.3N 117.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 26.1N 119.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 60H  05/0000Z 26.4N 122.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  05/1200Z 26.3N 125.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/1200Z 25.7N 129.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/1200Z 25.2N 132.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci/Reinhart