174 
WTPZ41 KNHC 020842
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Storm Javier Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112022
300 AM MDT Fri Sep 02 2022
 
Since yesterday afternoon, deep convection has been developing over 
the western half of the cyclone.  Although the surface circulation 
is still elongated (north to south), deep bursts of convection 
have recently appeared near the estimated center.  The latest 
microwave imagery indicated curved banding with cold cloud 
tops of -81C forming in the southeast quadrant.  A blend of the 
subjective satellite intensity from TAFB and SAB yields an estimate 
of 35 kt.  Accordingly, the depression has been upgraded to a 
tropical storm for this advisory.
 
The depression is expected to remain in an environment conducive
for additional strengthening through Saturday, but given its
broad, elongated structure, only modest intensification is 
forecast.  Afterward, gradual weakening is expected as the cyclone 
traverses decreasing (22-24C) oceanic temperatures while moving 
into a stable, dry marine layer.  The intensity forecast is an 
update of the previous one and is based on the various intensity 
consensus guidance.

Javier's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 320/9 
kt, moving along the western periphery of a mid-tropospheric ridge 
over northern Mexico.  By the 48 hour period, the ridge as 
mentioned above is expected to build westward, which should cause 
the cyclone to turn toward the west-northwest and west over the 
weekend.  The official track forecast is again adjusted to the 
right of the previous forecast based on a mean track of the 
clustered guidance, however, tropical-storm-force winds generated 
by Javier are expected to remain well offshore of the western coast 
of Baja California Sur.  Associated outer rainbands and large 
swells are expected to affect portions of the southern and 
central Baja California peninsula coast during the next couple of 
days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0900Z 19.9N 111.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 21.2N 112.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 23.0N 114.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 24.6N 116.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  04/0600Z 25.6N 118.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  04/1800Z 26.1N 121.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  05/0600Z 26.1N 123.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/0600Z 25.5N 129.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/0600Z 24.8N 133.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts