232 WTPZ41 KNHC 200835 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022 200 AM PDT Wed Jul 20 2022 Estelle's cloud pattern has been reduced to small bursts of deep convection near its center this morning. A 0427 UTC GMI microwave pass revealed a couple of fragmented curved bands around its circulation, but cloud top temperatures in this region have warmed during the past several hours. Unfortunately, scatterometer data failed to sample the inner core of Estelle this morning. A blend of the current intensity Dvorak estimates from TAFB (T3.5/55 kt) and SAB (T3.0/45 kt) support lowering the initial intensity to 50 kt. A mid-level ridge to the northeast of Estelle is steering the tropical storm toward the west-northwest at 295/12 kt. This general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected for the next couple of days or so. Then, a westward turn is forecast as the shallow, weakening system becomes steered by the low-level easterly trade winds. The NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one and remains near the HCCA and TVCE consensus aids. Decreasing SSTs along Estelle's path will make it increasingly difficult for the cyclone to sustain deep, organized convection during the next couple of days. Continued weakening is expected, and Estelle is likely to lose all convection by Thursday as it moves into a drier and more stable environment over sub-22 deg C waters. The latest NHC forecast calls for Estelle to become a post-tropical remnant low on Thursday and dissipate this weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 20.6N 119.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 21.1N 121.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 21.7N 123.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 22.2N 124.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 22/0600Z 22.7N 126.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 22/1800Z 23.0N 127.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/0600Z 23.1N 128.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart