000
WTPZ41 KNHC 192037
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062022
200 PM PDT Tue Jul 19 2022
 
Deep convection reformed over the center today while the vertical 
wind shear abated.  Data from a recent scatterometer pass showed 
that Estelle still has winds of at least 55 kt, which will be used 
for the advisory intensity.  This is a little above most of the 
Dvorak estimates.  

Based on the current intensity trend and the forecast for weak 
vertical wind shear, it seems possible that Estelle may maintain its 
strength for about 12 hours while over marginal sea surface 
temperatures.  Within a day or so, the storm is forecast to be over 
even cooler waters and within a drier mid- to low-level environment 
which should result in weakening.  Estelle is predicted to be a 
remnant low in a couple of days.  The official intensity forecast is 
close the latest Decay-SHIPS guidance.

The forward motion of the storm has increased slightly to 12 kt 
while Estelle moves west-northwestward around the periphery of a 
mid-level ridge.  This general trajectory is likely to continue for 
the next few days until the weakening circulation becomes more 
shallow and is steered by the low-level winds.  The NHC track 
forecast is nearly identical to the previous advisory prediction, 
and is quite similar to the multi-model consensus aid, TVCE.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/2100Z 19.5N 116.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  20/0600Z 20.1N 118.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  20/1800Z 20.9N 120.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  21/0600Z 21.6N 122.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  21/1800Z 22.2N 124.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  22/0600Z 22.6N 126.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  22/1800Z 22.9N 127.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  23/1800Z 23.0N 130.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  24/1800Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci