000
WTPZ41 KNHC 191443
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062022
800 AM PDT Tue Jul 19 2022
 
Estelle remains quite disorganized this morning, with most of the 
fragmented convection over the eastern semicircle of the 
circulation.  The storm center passed just north of Clarion Island 
where an automated Mexican Navy weather station measured winds near 
tropical-storm-force strength.  The central pressure of Estelle was 
adjusted slightly lower based on the reported observations.  Dvorak 
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB ranged from 65 kt to 45 kt, 
respectively and the initial intensity is held at 55 kt to represent 
a blend of the classifications.

A gradual weakening trend is expected to continue through the 
forecast period.  While the vertical wind shear is not expected to 
be strong, the center of Estelle is now crossing over sea surface 
temperatures cooler than 26 degrees C and into a drier, more stable 
air mass.  These atmospheric and oceanic conditions will make it 
difficult for the storm to retain or develop organized deep 
convection.  This should result in a gradual spindown of the 
circulation.  The official intensity forecast follows the 
multi-model consensus guidance and now predicts Estelle to become a 
post-tropical cyclone in a couple of days.

The track philosophy is unchanged.  Estelle is moving 
west-northwestward at 10 kt and is following the steering currents 
of a mid-level ridge to its north-northeast.  This motion is 
predicted to continue for the next couple of days until the storm 
becomes a remnant low and turns westward in the low-level trade 
winds.  The NHC track forecast is quite similar to the previous 
advisory and close to the consensus aids.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/1500Z 19.0N 115.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  20/0000Z 19.6N 117.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  20/1200Z 20.5N 119.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  21/0000Z 21.3N 121.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  21/1200Z 22.0N 123.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 60H  22/0000Z 22.5N 125.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  22/1200Z 22.8N 127.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  23/1200Z 23.0N 130.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  24/1200Z 23.0N 133.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch/Bucci