000
WTPZ41 KNHC 180832
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Estelle Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062022
300 AM MDT Mon Jul 18 2022
 
Estelle has generally changed little during the past several hours,
but the hurricane is less organized than it was 24 hours ago. The
system continues to produce a concentrated area of deep convection,
but a recent GMI microwave pass showed that northerly shear is
causing a significant asymmetry in the storm's structure. The center
is located near the northern edge of the convection and banding
features are mostly confined to the south of the center. The latest
satellite intensity estimates range from 55 to 77 kt, and the
initial intensity is held at 70 kt for this advisory. An ASCAT pass 
from around 05Z indicated that the 34- and 50-kt wind radii were 
larger than previously estimated.
 
The hurricane is expected to remain over warm water for another
24-36 hours, but north to northeasterly shear of 10-15 kt is
expected to persist during that time period. Given the storm's
current structure and continued shear, only a little strengthening
seems possible during that time period. Beyond 36 hours, Estelle
will be tracking over waters cooler than 26 C and into a drier and
more stable air mass. These conditions should cause a steady
weakening trend, and the system will likely become post-tropical in
3 to 4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is again lower than the
previous one and it lies at the high end of the guidance in the
short term, but falls in line with the HCCA and IVCN consensus
models after 36 hours.
 
Estelle has been moving a little north of the previous forecast with
the latest initial motion estimated to be 305/11 kt. The models
show a mid-level ridge building westward to the north of Estelle,
which should cause the system to move generally west-northwestward
for the next several days. The NHC track forecast is a little to
the north of the previous one, mostly based on the initial motion
and position.
 
Estelle is expected to continue producing rough surf and rip current
conditions along the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico
as well as the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula during
the next couple of days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/0900Z 17.5N 109.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  18/1800Z 18.1N 111.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  19/0600Z 18.5N 113.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  19/1800Z 19.0N 116.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  20/0600Z 19.8N 118.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  20/1800Z 20.7N 120.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  21/0600Z 21.8N 122.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  22/0600Z 23.1N 126.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  23/0600Z 23.7N 129.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi