000 WTPZ41 KNHC 170237 TCDEP1 Hurricane Estelle Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022 1000 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 After taking a breather this afternoon, Estelle's inner-core convection came back with a vengeance as a burst began around 2100 UTC and continued to organize around the center through the evening. There have been no microwave images since this morning to help assess the cyclone's structure, but the 00 UTC Dvorak fix from TAFB and the UW-CIMSS ADT support Estelle's upgrade to a hurricane. The ADT ticked up a bit since then with a warm spot developing within the Central Dense Overcast, so the advisory intensity is set at 70 kt. Either way, Estelle has rapidly intensified by at least 30 kt over the past 24 hours. Continued rapid intensification (RI) appears likely during the next 24 hours while Estelle moves over very warm waters of 29-30 degrees Celsius and benefits from high values of upper-level divergence and generally low shear. The conventional RI and DTOPS indices from the GFS and ECWMF versions of SHIPS are still quite high, ranging from a 50 to 75 percent chance of another 30-kt increase in intensity over the next 24 hours. As a result, the NHC intensity forecast is near the top end of the guidance and explicit shows RI, with Estelle expected to reach a peak intensity of 100 kt as a major hurricane by 36 hours. Intensification is likely to level off around that time as environmental conditions become a little less ideal, and Estelle is expected to begin weakening over colder waters by day 3. The NHC forecast remains near the upper end of the guidance during Estelle's expected weakening phase. The current motion remains west-northwestward at 295/8 kt. A mid-level ridge located over the southwestern United States is expected to strengthen and expand westward over the Pacific Ocean in the coming days, which should continue steering Estelle toward the west-northwest at a slightly faster pace. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, and the only notable update in this NHC forecast is that it's a little faster than the afternoon forecast in order to be more in line with the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids, as well as the ECWMF solution. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 14.7N 105.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 15.2N 106.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 15.9N 108.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 16.6N 110.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 17.0N 112.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 19/1200Z 17.5N 115.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 20/0000Z 18.3N 117.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 21/0000Z 20.4N 122.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 22/0000Z 22.3N 126.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg