000 WTPZ41 KNHC 162035 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022 400 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 Estelle does not look quite as impressive as it did this morning in conventional satellite imagery. Its structure consists of a small, ragged inner core with several curved outer bands that wrap around its center. Northeasterly shear continues to impinge on the cyclone, which could be importing some drier mid-level air into the circulation. The latest subjective and objective satellite estimates range from 55-65 kt, and without new microwave data to better assess any structural changes, the initial intensity is held at 60 kt. Despite a brief pause in intensification, environmental conditions appear generally favorable for more strengthening during the next couple of days. Overall, the latest intensity guidance favors steady to rapid intensification over the next 24-36 h as Estelle crosses very warm SSTs in a moist and unstable environment. The persistent moderate deep-layer shear is a concern, but only a small improvement in its inner core structure should allow the small cyclone to resume strengthening tonight. The NHC intensity forecast remains on the higher end of the guidance, closest to SHIPS/LGEM and slightly above HCCA, and shows peak intensity as a major hurricane in 36-48 h. Then, increasing northerly shear and decreasing SSTs along the forecast track should cause Estelle to weaken through the middle of next week, as it moves into a drier mid-level environment. Estelle is still moving west-northwestward at 295/8 kt. The track reasoning has not changed, and the cyclone should generally maintain a west-northwestward heading during the next several days as it is steered by a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern United States. The NHC track forecast is just slightly left of the previous track, in agreement with the latest multi-model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 14.2N 104.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 14.7N 105.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 15.5N 107.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 16.2N 109.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 16.8N 111.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 19/0600Z 17.2N 113.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 17.9N 116.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 20/1800Z 19.5N 121.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 21/1800Z 21.5N 125.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart