373 WTPZ41 KNHC 160836 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Estelle Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062022 400 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2022 Estelle has become much better organized during the past several hours. Geostationary satellite and microwave images indicate that deep convection has increased near the center and an inner core has formed. An ASCAT pass from around 05Z showed maximum winds of around 40 kt, but since Estelle is a compact tropical cyclone it likely did not resolve its peak winds. The Dvorak classifications at 06Z from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin were all 3.0/45 kt. Since Estelle has continued to organize since then, the initial intensity is increased to 50 kt for this advisory, in line with the latest automated values from CIMSS. The tropical storm seems poised to strengthen further as Estelle is expected to remain in generally favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification (RI) Index shows about 50 percent of RI occurring, and given the environment and well-defined structure, the NHC forecast now calls for RI to occur during the next 24 hours. After that time, increasing shear should cause the intensity to plateau in the 36-72 hour period, followed by weakening when Estelle moves over cooler waters and into a drier air mass. This forecast is a little higher than the previous one, and lies near the high end of the model guidance. Estelle is moving west-northwestward at 11 kt. A mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. is expected to gradually build westward, which should keep Estelle on a general west-northwest track during the next several days. The models have shifted a little to the south and are faster this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted accordingly. This prediction still lies on the northern side of the guidance envelope at days 4 and 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 13.6N 103.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 14.3N 104.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 15.0N 105.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 15.7N 107.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 16.4N 109.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 18/1800Z 17.0N 111.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 17.6N 114.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 20/0600Z 19.1N 118.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 21/0600Z 20.9N 123.1W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi