000
WTPZ41 KNHC 310237
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Storm Agatha Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012022
1000 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022
 
Satellite imagery indicates that Agatha continues to move farther
inland, with a less organized cloud pattern. The initial wind speed
is lowered to 60 kt, on the faster side of the overland weakening
guidance due to the very high terrain.  Agatha should continue to
quickly weaken overnight due to further interactions with the
mountains of Mexico, and it is forecast to dissipate by Tuesday
afternoon near the Isthmus of Tehuantepec.
 
The storm is moving northeastward at 7 kt. The global models
continue to suggest that the mid-level remnants will merge with a
broad low pressure system near the Yucatan peninsula, and there is
some potential for the development of a new tropical cyclone in the
northwestern Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico later this
week.
 
Although Agatha is weakening, life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides from heavy rains are still possible through Tuesday.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Heavy rains associated with Agatha will continue over portions of
southern Mexico through Tuesday.  This will pose a threat of
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions will continue within the warning
area through Tuesday morning.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  31/0300Z 16.2N  96.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 12H  31/1200Z 16.9N  95.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake