000
WTPZ41 KNHC 301435
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Agatha Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012022
1000 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022
 
Outer rain bands continue to spread across southern Mexico as the
core of Agatha closes in on the coast, and conditions will
steadily worsen throughout the day in the state of Oaxaca.  The
satellite presentation of the system has been relatively steady
state for the past several hours with hints of an eye occasionally
appearing within the central dense overcast.  Convection remains
quite deep and symmetric around the center.  Dvorak estimates from
TAFB and SAB have been holding steady at 5.0, and therefore, the
initial intensity is again held at 95 kt.  An Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is nearing the system and the data it collects will
be quite helpful in assessing the strength and structure of Agatha.
 
Agatha is moving to the northeast at 7 kt, and this motion should
take the core of the hurricane to the coast of Oaxaca this 
afternoon. Not much change was made to the previous NHC track 
forecast, and this one lies near the middle of the guidance
envelope.
 
The hurricane is expected to maintain its current intensity until
the core reaches the coast later today.  After landfall, rapid
weakening is forecast, and Agatha will likely dissipate over
the rugged terrain of southeastern Mexico by late Tuesday.
However, the global models suggest that the mid-level remnants will
merge with a broader low pressure system, which is being monitored
for potential development in the Atlantic basin.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Extremely dangerous coastal flooding from storm surge,
accompanied by large and destructive waves, is expected near and
to the east of where Agatha makes landfall.
 
2. Life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected in portions
of the hurricane warning area in Oaxaca, Mexico, this afternoon
and continuing through this evening.  Tropical storm conditions
have already begun along the coast of Oaxaca and will spread
eastward within the warning area through tonight.
 
3. Heavy rains associated with Agatha will continue over portions of
southern Mexico through Tuesday.  This will pose a threat of 
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/1500Z 15.3N  97.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  31/0000Z 15.9N  96.2W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND
 24H  31/1200Z 16.8N  95.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 36H  01/0000Z 17.6N  94.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi