000 WTPZ41 KNHC 110232 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Pamela Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 900 PM MDT Sun Oct 10 2021 Satellite images indicate that Pamela is continuing to strengthen. The low-level center is on the northern edge of a growing area of deep convection, although there is still a fair bit of northerly shear as indicated by the V-shape to the cloud tops on infrared satellite imagery. Intensity estimates are rising, so the wind speed is set to 45 kt, closest to the latest TAFB classification. The current moderate shear is forecast to relax some tomorrow as Pamela moves closer to the center of an upper-level high. Combined with the very warm waters in the path of the storm, this should set the stage for continued strengthening. Rapid intensification is also possible in a day or so when Pamela is in a shear minimum and likely has a better-developed inner core. The intensity forecast is raised from the previous one, although it remains below the corrected- consensus guidance. This could be a conservative forecast if the favorable environment shown by the GFS model materializes. Pamela has slowed some tonight, now 295/10 kt. The steering pattern seems well defined for the next day or so with a ridge controlling the storm's motion in a west-northwest to northwest direction. A broad mid-latitude trough causes the ridge to erode in a couple of days, forcing the cyclone to turn northward and northeastward by late Tuesday and move faster. The most significant guidance change is that more of the models are showing a quicker progression toward the coast of west-central Mexico. This makes meteorological sense as well, with a more powerful hurricane likely feeling the stronger upper-level southwesterly winds. The new forecast is adjusted toward the northeast beyond 24 hours, near or just behind the model consensus. Key Messages: 1. Pamela is forecast to be a major hurricane when it reaches the coast of west-central mainland Mexico on Wednesday, and it could bring life-threatening storm surge, flash flooding, and dangerous winds to a portion of that area. Residents in this area should monitor the progress of this system and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. 2. Pamela is expected to pass near or south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula as a hurricane Tuesday night or early Wednesday, and could bring strong winds and heavy rainfall to the extreme southern portion of the peninsula. Watches could be required for portions of this area early Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 15.9N 106.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 16.5N 108.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 17.6N 109.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 19.0N 109.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 20.7N 109.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 13/1200Z 22.8N 108.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 14/0000Z 25.5N 106.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 96H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake