000
WTPZ41 KNHC 100844
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112021
300 AM MDT Tue Aug 10 2021
 
Deep convection associated with Kevin is still displaced well south 
and southwest of its exposed low-level center by strong 
northeasterly vertical wind shear. Recent scatterometer data 
indicate that the center is elongated from northeast to southwest, 
and the tropical-storm-force winds are confined to the southern 
semicircle of the cyclone. Based on several 35-kt wind vectors noted 
in the latest scatterometer passes, the initial intensity is held at 
40 kt for this advisory.

Satellite imagery indicates that Kevin has taken a northward jog 
overnight, and its estimated initial motion is now northwest or 
305/8 kt. A general northwestward to west-northwestward motion is 
expected over the next several days as Kevin moves along the 
southwestern periphery of a deep-layer ridge.  Based on the initial 
motion adjustment and guidance trends, the official NHC forecast 
track has been adjusted northward from the previous one, although it 
still lies a little to the south of the TVCE and HCCA aids.

Moderate to strong northeasterly wind shear is forecast to persist 
over Kevin for the next day or so, which should limit its ability to 
strengthen despite favorable SSTs and abundant mid-level moisture. 
By the time that the wind shear diminishes, the cyclone will be 
passing over much cooler waters in a drier, more stable environment. 
Thus, little change in strength is expected in the near-term, 
followed by weakening beginning on Wednesday. Overall, the latest 
NHC intensity forecast remains near the multi-model consensus. By 
72 h, GFS and ECMWF model simulated satellite imagery suggest that 
Kevin will be devoid of organized convection, and so the official 
NHC forecast shows Kevin as a remnant low at that time.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/0900Z 18.1N 113.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  10/1800Z 18.8N 114.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  11/0600Z 19.8N 115.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  11/1800Z 21.0N 117.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  12/0600Z 22.0N 119.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  12/1800Z 22.9N 121.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 72H  13/0600Z 23.9N 123.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  14/0600Z 26.0N 128.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  15/0600Z 27.5N 131.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch