000
WTPZ41 KNHC 091434
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112021
900 AM MDT Mon Aug 09 2021
 
Kevin has been successfully battling moderate northeasterly wind 
shear overnight, as a large convective mass with cloud tops colder 
than -80 degrees C has persisted for several hours over the center 
and southwestern portion of the cyclone's large circulation. The 
latest Dvorak intensity estimates have a large spread, ranging from 
55 kt from TAFB to 35 kt from the UW-CIMSS ADT. A mean of 45 kt from 
these values suggest that the storm's initial intensity remains the 
same as 6 h ago, which seems reasonable as the overall appearance of 
Kevin has changed little this morning. 

The storm is moving to the west-northwest at 300/07 kt along the 
southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. This steering pattern 
is forecast by all of the forecast models to remain in tact for the 
next several days, resulting in a continued west-northwestward 
motion. The only notable change in the track guidance was a slight 
shift to the north, and the latest NHC track forecast lies in 
between the previous one and the tightly clustered track guidance. 

The favorable thermodynamic environment and warm water have allowed 
Kevin to maintain deep convection despite the vertical wind shear. 
With the large amount of convection occurring near and over the 
center of the cyclone, it is possible for some slight strengthening 
to occur in the short-term, despite wind shear persisting over the 
next couple of days. By 48 hours, Kevin will begin to move over 
decreasing SSTs and into a more stable atmospheric environment. 
These unfavorable thermodynamic conditions should cause the cyclone 
to begin weakening. By 96 hours, the system is forecast to be over 
water temperatures of less than 23 degrees C, which should result in 
the cyclone degenerating into a remnant low. The latest NHC 
intensity forecast was decreased slightly from the previous one, and 
is in good agreement with the various intensity consensus models. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/1500Z 16.6N 111.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  10/0000Z 17.3N 112.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  10/1200Z 18.1N 114.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  11/0000Z 18.9N 115.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  11/1200Z 19.7N 117.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  12/0000Z 20.6N 119.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  12/1200Z 21.4N 121.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  13/1200Z 23.0N 125.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  14/1200Z 24.5N 130.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Latto