000
WTPZ41 KNHC 082034
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112021
300 PM MDT Sun Aug 08 2021
 
The earlier burst of deep convection almost completely dissipated, 
leaving the core of the low-level circulation briefly exposed. 
However, over the past couple of hours new convection has 
redeveloped over the center of Kevin. This disruption, possibly 
aided by moderate northeasterly shear, put a temporary pause on the 
cyclone's strengthening. The latest Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and 
SAB have decreased to 3.0 (45 kt), while the CI-values remain at 3.5 
(55 kt). Based on a blend of these numbers, the estimated initial 
advisory intensity remains 50 kt. 

Kevin is forecast to remain over warm waters while embedded in a 
moist and unstable atmospheric environment for the next 48 h or so. 
The main inhibiting factor for intensification is the persistent 
vertical wind shear, which is forecast to persist for the next few 
days. Kevin is forecast by all of the intensity guidance to overcome 
this shear, and slowly strengthen over the next two days. After 60 
h, Kevin should begin to move over decreasing SSTs and into a more 
stable atmospheric environment, which should cause the cyclone to 
steadily weaken. By 120 h, the system is forecast to be over waters 
of less than 23 degrees C, likely causing the cyclone to become 
devoid of deep convection. The only notable change in the latest NHC 
forecast from the previous one was to introduce the mention of the 
system as post-tropical by day 5. Otherwise, the latest forecast 
remains near the IVCN consensus aid.  

Kevin continues to move westward, or 270/7 kt. There is no change to 
the forecast track reasoning. A mid- to upper-level trough west of 
the Baja California peninsula is expected to weaken the western 
portion of the ridge that is currently steering Kevin westward.  
This should cause the cyclone to turn west-northwestward overnight 
and this west-northwestward heading is then expected to continue for 
the remainder of the forecast period.  The latest track guidance is 
in very good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC track forecast 
is little changed from the previous one. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/2100Z 15.8N 109.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 16.0N 110.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  09/1800Z 16.6N 112.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  10/0600Z 17.3N 113.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  10/1800Z 18.1N 115.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  11/0600Z 19.0N 116.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  11/1800Z 19.8N 118.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  12/1800Z 21.5N 122.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  13/1800Z 23.0N 126.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 
$$
Forecaster Latto