000
WTPZ41 KNHC 080839
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112021
300 AM MDT Sun Aug 08 2021
 
Kevin has changed little overnight. Microwave data and infrared 
satellite imagery reveal that its convective bands are still 
somewhat fragmented with only modest curvature. Recent UW-CIMSS 
objective estimates and subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB 
and SAB range from 35 to 45 kt, so the initial intensity is held at 
40 kt for this advisory. Unfortunately, no recent scatterometer 
passes were available to better assess the cyclone's current 
intensity. 

The cyclone continues moving westward, or 270 degrees, at around 9 
kt. This motion is expected for another 12 to 24 h, before a mid- to 
upper-level trough weakens the steering ridge and causes Kevin to 
move west-northwestward through midweek. Kevin is forecast to pass 
near or just south of Clarion Island on Tuesday. The track guidance 
is in good agreement for much of the forecast period, and the latest 
official NHC forecast lies near the previous one and generally 
follows the multi-model consensus aids.

Kevin appears primed for some strengthening, as the cyclone will 
remain in a moist, unstable environment with ample oceanic heat 
content for the next couple of days. However, persistent 
northeasterly wind shear of 15-20 kt will likely curtail rapid 
intensification in an otherwise favorable environment. Despite the 
shear, the guidance supports strengthening in the near-term, and the 
official NHC forecast shows Kevin becoming a hurricane on Monday.  
The cyclone's intensity is forecast to level off by Tuesday, with 
weakening thereafter as Kevin moves over cooler waters and continues 
to battle moderate shear. The latest NHC intensity forecast is a 
little lower than the previous one, but remains near or slightly 
above the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA) and IVCN aids.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/0900Z 15.8N 108.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  08/1800Z 15.8N 109.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  09/0600Z 16.1N 110.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  09/1800Z 16.7N 112.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  10/0600Z 17.5N 113.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  10/1800Z 18.2N 114.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  11/0600Z 19.1N 116.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  12/0600Z 20.8N 120.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  13/0600Z 22.5N 124.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch