000
WTPZ41 KNHC 072038
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112021
300 PM MDT Sat Aug 07 2021

Visible satellite imagery has continued to show an improvement in 
the cloud pattern of the tropical cyclone today. Banding has 
increased over the western and southern portions of the circulation 
while a small CDO has developed near the center.  Scatterometer data 
from around 1700 UTC revealed an area of 30-kt winds to the 
northwest of the center, but with the continued increase in 
organization and Dvorak T-numbers of T2.5 from both TAFB and SAB the 
initial wind speed has been increased to 35 kt. Kevin becomes the 
eleventh named storm in the eastern Pacific basin during the 2021 
season, which is running about a month ahead of schedule as the 
eleventh named storm typically does not form until early-to-mid 
September.

Kevin is located within an environment of low-to-moderate shear, 
warm sea surface temperatures, and a moist atmosphere.  These 
conditions are expected to support steady strengthening over the 
next few days, and the cyclone is expected to become a hurricane 
in about 36 hours.  There is some spread in the intensity guidance 
with the statistical guidance on the more aggressive side as 
compared to some of the dynamical models.  The NHC wind speed 
forecast lies a little above the various consensus models but 
slightly below the SHIPS guidance. 

The storm is moving westward or 270/9 kt. A mid-tropospheric ridge 
that extends across the subtropical eastern Pacific is forecast to 
steer Kevin generally westward during the next 36 hours. After that 
time, a cut-off low west of the Baja peninsula is expected to erode 
the western portion of the ridge causing Kevin to turn west- 
northwestward to northwestward through the remainder of the forecast 
period. The GFS, which depicts an unrealistic elongation of the 
system's low-level vorticity in about 48 hours, shows a much 
sharper northward or northwestward motion from 48-72 hours. Less 
weight was placed on that solution with the NHC track remaining 
closer to the bulk of the guidance and the various consensus aids.  
The latest track forecast is similar to, but a little slower than 
previous advisory. 

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/2100Z 15.8N 106.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  08/0600Z 15.8N 108.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  08/1800Z 15.7N 109.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  09/0600Z 15.7N 110.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  09/1800Z 16.2N 111.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  10/0600Z 17.3N 112.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  10/1800Z 18.2N 114.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  11/1800Z 19.9N 117.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  12/1800Z 21.9N 122.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Brown