000
WTPZ41 KNHC 071451
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112021
1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 07 2021
 
Last night's METOP-A/B scatterometer overpasses indicated that the
area of low pressure located a couple hundred miles south-southwest
of Manzanillo, Mexico had become a little better defined, and 
since that time, the system has developed sufficient organized 
convection to be designated as a tropical depression.  The initial 
intensity is estimated to be 30 kt and is in agreement with the 
satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.
 
Modest northeasterly shear, warm sea surface temperatures and 
a moist surrounding low- to mid-level environment support steady 
strengthening during the next few days, and the depression 
is forecast to become a tropical storm by tonight.  The Statistical 
SHIPS (GFS/ECMWF), and the HCCA/IVCN multi-model intensity aids, 
all show that the cyclone will become a hurricane in about 48 
hours, and the NHC forecast follows suit.  The intensity forecast 
resembles the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus models, and is just 
below the Decay SHIPS guidance.

The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 275/8 kt.  The 
depression is being steered by a mid-tropospheric ridge stretching 
westward over the subtropical eastern Pacific from high pressure 
located over the northern Gulf of Mexico.  A general westward motion 
with a similar forward speed is expected through early next week.  
Through the remaining portion of the forecast, a turn toward the 
west-northwest to northwest is expected due to a growing weakness in 
the aforementioned ridge.  The official forecast is based on the 
TVCN multi-model consensus and lies between the GFS and ECMWF global 
models solutions.

 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/1500Z 15.9N 105.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 15.9N 106.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  08/1200Z 15.9N 108.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  09/0000Z 15.9N 109.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  09/1200Z 16.2N 111.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  10/0000Z 16.8N 112.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  10/1200Z 18.0N 113.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  11/1200Z 19.9N 117.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  12/1200Z 21.7N 121.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts