000
WTPZ41 KNHC 180840
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062021
1100 PM HST Sat Jul 17 2021
 
Felicia has maintained its impressive structure tonight, with a
symmetric ring of very cold infrared cloud-top temperatures
surrounding a warm and well-defined eye. Recent microwave imagery
shows that Felicia still has a very compact inner core. The initial
intensity is maintained at 120 kt, as the hurricane's satellite
appearance has shown no signs of decay since the last advisory. This
intensity is consistent with subjective T6.0 Dvorak classifications
from TAFB and SAB.
 
Felicia should weaken during the next couple of days as the
hurricane moves over cooler sea-surface temperatures, although this
could be a gradual process while the vertical wind shear remains
low. By Tuesday, increasing northwesterly wind shear in a drier,
more stable environment is expected to accelerate the weakening of
Felicia through the middle and latter parts of the week. Although
the official NHC forecast shows remnant low status by day 5, it is
plausible that this could occur even sooner if the higher shear
values in the ECMWF SHIPS guidance materialize. The official NHC
intensity forecast lies above the guidance model consensus through
48 h, then aligns with the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA)
aid through the rest of the forecast period.
 
Felicia is still moving west-northwestward at about 9 kt. The track
guidance has been quite consistent and remains in very good
agreement, which makes for a high confidence track forecast. The
cyclone is expected to turn more westward by Monday, then move
west-southwestward through midweek as Felicia becomes steered by an
expansive ridge across the central Pacific. The NHC track forecast
is essentially unchanged from the previous one and lies between the
reliable consensus aids TVCE and HCCA.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/0900Z 15.5N 127.1W  120 KT 140 MPH
 12H  18/1800Z 15.8N 128.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  19/0600Z 16.1N 130.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  19/1800Z 16.3N 132.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  20/0600Z 16.2N 134.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  20/1800Z 15.9N 137.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  21/0600Z 15.3N 140.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  22/0600Z 14.3N 145.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  23/0600Z 13.5N 151.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch