000
WTPZ41 KNHC 180236
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062021
500 PM HST Sat Jul 17 2021

Satellite images indicate that Felicia remains a well-organized 
hurricane with an annular structure and a clear eye.  However, the 
eye temperature has cooled a bit, along with some eyewall 
cloud-top warming.  Intensity estimates have fallen somewhat, so 
the initial wind speed is reduced to 120 kt for this advisory.

Gradually cooling SSTs should cause a general weakening trend with 
Felicia during the next day or so.  The rate of weakening should 
increase sometime Monday due to decreasing instability and a modest 
rise in upper-level wind shear, which could assist with dry-air 
entrainment near the inner core.  Due to the system's small size, 
Felicia could also weaken fairly quickly by Tuesday in these 
marginal environmental conditions, although this type of scenario 
is inherently low confidence.  The new forecast remains on the high 
side of the guidance but is reduced from the previous one.  By the 
end of the forecast period, stronger shear should be impacting the 
system, and hopefully we will be able to say bye Felicia on 
Thursday.

Felicia is moving west-northwestward at about 8 kt.  The hurricane 
is forecast to turn again toward the west by late Sunday as a 
mid-level ridge to the north builds slightly. Felicia should 
then turn west-southwestward early in the work week due to the 
orientation of an extensive deep-layer ridge centered over the 
central Pacific. The spread in the track guidance is very low, 
leading to a high confidence track forecast, and the NHC track 
forecast is close to the various consensus aids and the last 
advisory.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/0300Z 15.2N 126.1W  120 KT 140 MPH
 12H  18/1200Z 15.6N 127.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  19/0000Z 16.1N 129.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  19/1200Z 16.3N 131.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  20/0000Z 16.3N 133.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  20/1200Z 16.1N 136.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  21/0000Z 15.6N 138.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  22/0000Z 14.6N 144.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  23/0000Z 13.9N 149.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Blake