000
WTPZ41 KNHC 170232
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062021
500 PM HST Fri Jul 16 2021
 
Felicia continues to exhibit characteristics of a classic major
hurricane. The eye remains clear while the CDO is symmetrical with
uniform cold cloud tops surrounding the center. The latest Dvorak
T-numbers from TAFB and SAB support keeping the initial intensity at
115 kt for this advisory. Felicia is a small hurricane, and recent
ASCAT overpasses showed that the tropical-storm-force winds extend
only about 40-50 n mi from the center.
 
Since earlier this afternoon, the hurricane has been moving south 
of due west, or 260/08 kt. A strong ridge to the north of the 
Felicia is expected to maintain it on a generally westward motion 
for the next several days. Late in the forecast period, the model 
guidance has trended toward a slightly faster forward motion. The 
latest NHC forecast track is close to the previous one through 72 h, 
but now lies in between the previous forecast and the track 
consensus guidance thereafter. 

Felicia is expected to move over gradually decreasing SSTs over the 
next few days which should induce a slow weakening trend beginning 
later tonight or on Saturday. Although the hurricane is surrounded 
by dry air, it is maintaining an annular structure while it is 
expected to remain in an environment of low vertical wind shear for 
at least a few more days. These factors may prevent this dry air 
from entraining into the cyclone's circulation for some time. 
Because of this, the latest NHC intensity prediction remains on the 
high end of the guidance for the entire forecast period, with the 
main factor contributing to weakening being the cooler SSTs. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/0300Z 14.8N 123.2W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  17/1200Z 14.6N 124.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  18/0000Z 14.7N 126.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  18/1200Z 15.1N 128.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  19/0000Z 15.4N 129.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  19/1200Z 15.5N 131.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  20/0000Z 15.5N 134.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  21/0000Z 14.7N 138.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  22/0000Z 13.9N 143.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Latto