000
WTPZ41 KNHC 162031
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062021
1100 AM HST Fri Jul 16 2021

Felicia has continued to strengthen late this morning and early 
afternoon, with a very distinct clear eye embedded in the center of 
a smooth CDO feature. Although objective satellite classifications 
have plateaued at 105-107 kt over the past several hours, likely due 
to some warming of the surrounding cloud tops around the eye, the 
1800Z subjective intensity estimate from TAFB remained at T6.0 or 
115 kt. Internal NHC satellite analyses concur with this estimate. 
Based on the persistent TAFB classification and the pronounced eye 
feature noted in visible imagery, the initial intensity has been 
increased to 115 kt, making Felicia a category 4 hurricane on the 
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. 
 
Felicia is moving westward again or 265/08 kt. The global and 
regional models maintain the strong deep-layer ridge to the north 
of the hurricane for the next 120 hours, with only minor track 
deviations from a due westward motion expected throughout the 
forecast period. The bulk of the latest model guidance has shifted 
noticeably northward or to the right of the previous forecast 
track, and the new NHC advisory track has been shifted in that 
direction as well. However, the new track forecast was not shifted 
as far north as the simple- and corrected-consensus models, and 
instead lies near the southern edge of the track guidance envelope.
 
Some fluctuations in intensity will still be possible during the 
next 12 h as the hurricane traverses a series of small cool and 
warm ocean currents or eddies. However, by late tonight or early 
Saturday, Felicia is expected to begin a gradual weakening trend 
due to cool ocean upwelling beneath the hurricane, along with 
intermittent entrainment of very dry mid-level air. However, the 
rate of weakening is forecast to be slower than normal due to 
expected low vertical wind shear (<10 kt) conditions and Felicia's 
stable, annular structure. The new NHC intensity forecast is 
similar to the previous advisory, and lies near the upper end of the 
intensity guidance, which is above most of the consensus and 
statistical models.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/2100Z 14.9N 122.4W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  17/0600Z 14.8N 123.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  17/1800Z 14.8N 125.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  18/0600Z 15.0N 127.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  18/1800Z 15.3N 128.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  19/0600Z 15.4N 130.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  19/1800Z 15.4N 132.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  20/1800Z 14.7N 136.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  21/1800Z 13.8N 141.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart