000
WTPZ41 KNHC 161433
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062021
800 AM PDT Fri Jul 16 2021
 
Compact Hurricane Felicia has continued to rapidly strengthen this  
morning with a well-defined, warm (>15C) clear eye now evident in 
infrared satellite imagery. However, the convective cloud tops 
surrounding the eye have warmed by almost 10 deg C during the past 
several hours, and a 1022Z ATMS microwave satellite pass showed the 
inner core convection a little less organized. Subjective satellite 
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were a consensus T6.0/115 kt 
and objective estimates from UW-CIMSS ADT over the past couple of 
hours have averaged T5.7/105 kt. The initial intensity is raised to 
110 kt, and just below category 4 strength, for this advisory based 
on a blend of the various satellite intensity estimates and the 
slightly degraded aforementioned convective features.
 
Felicia is moving west-southwestward or 255/07 kt. Strong deep-layer 
ridging to the north of the hurricane is expected to keep Felicia 
moving west-southwestward for the next 12-24 h. Thereafter, the 
global and regional models all show the ridge relaxing somewhat, 
which should allow Felicia to move more westward in the 24-120-hour 
forecast period. The new NHC track forecast is essentially on top of 
and just an update of the previous advisory track, and lies near the 
middle of the tightly packed simple and corrected consensus models 
TVCE, GFEX, and NOAA-HCCA.

Some additional slight strengthening could occur this morning due to 
low vertical shear and warm SSTs conditions, with Felicia briefly 
becoming a category 4 hurricane. However, the warm water beneath the 
powerful hurricane isn't very deep as indicated by upper-ocean heat 
content values currently only around 5 units, which suggests that 
cold upwelling could begin at any time during the next 12 hours. 
Ocean heat content values are forecast to remain below 10 units from 
24-96 hours, and decreasing to less than zero thereafter. Thus, slow 
weakening is forecast to begin by 24 h and continue through the 
remainder of the forecast period despite the favorable low (<10 kt) 
vertical wind shear regime that Felicia will be moving through. The 
new intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and 
closely follows the consensus intensity models NOAA-HCCA and IVCN.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/1500Z 15.0N 121.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  17/0000Z 14.8N 122.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  17/1200Z 13.1N 140.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  18/0000Z 14.6N 126.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  18/1200Z 14.7N 127.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  19/0000Z 14.8N 129.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  19/1200Z 14.8N 131.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  20/1200Z 14.4N 135.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  21/1200Z 13.7N 138.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart