000
WTPZ41 KNHC 141450
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Storm Felicia Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062021
900 AM MDT Wed Jul 14 2021
 
Recent satellite data indicate that the tropical cyclone has 
continued to organize this morning. An AMSR2 microwave pass around 
0900 UTC revealed a well-defined banding feature that wrapped more 
than half-way around the center and early-light visible images show 
a developing CDO with the center located beneath the eastern portion 
of the cold cloud tops.  Based on Dvorak T-numbers of 3.0 and 2.5 
from TAFB and SAB, respectively, the initial intensity was 
increased to 40 kt on a Tropical Cyclone Update issued at 1315 UTC. 
With the continued increase in organization, the advisory intensity 
has been raised to 45 kt. 

Felicia is located over warm SSTs and in an area of low vertical 
wind shear.  Given the recent development of a small inner-core, it 
seems likely that Felicia will continue to strengthen during the 
next couple of days.  The only caveat appears to be nearby dry air 
that could get entrained into the circulation of the relatively 
small tropical cyclone and cause some disruptions in the 
intensification process. Although most of the intensity guidance is 
not extremely bullish and the rapid intensification probabilities 
are not particularly high, the NHC forecast predicts steady 
strengthening and brings Felicia to hurricane status within 24 
hours.  The NHC wind speed forecast is in best agreement with the 
HFIP corrected consensus model, which is at the upper-end of the 
guidance. 

The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward or 285/13 kt. A 
mid-level ridge to the north of Felicia should steer the storm 
west-northwestward to westward during the next 12-24 h. After that 
time, the orientation of the ridge shifts slightly which is expected 
to cause Felicia to turn west-southwestward with some decrease in 
forward speed during the middle portion of the forecast period.  
The dynamical model guidance is in reasonably good agreement, and 
the NHC forecast lies near the TVCE consensus aid.  The guidance 
envelope did shift a little southward from the previous cycle, and 
the new NHC forecast has been modified accordingly. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/1500Z 14.3N 114.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  15/0000Z 14.9N 115.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  15/1200Z 15.4N 117.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  16/0000Z 15.5N 119.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  16/1200Z 15.3N 120.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  17/0000Z 15.0N 122.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  17/1200Z 14.9N 124.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  18/1200Z 14.9N 127.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  19/1200Z 14.8N 132.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Brown