000
WTPZ41 KNHC 110834
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Depression Andres Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012021
300 AM MDT Tue May 11 2021
 
The harsh surrounding upper wind environment has taken a toll
on Andres.  The last few fragments of the depression's deep
convection dissipated around 1000 PM MDT (0400 UTC) with the
exposed center of Andres now traversing slightly cooler oceanic
temperatures.  The initial intensity has been reduced to 25 kt
based on a 0343 UTC METOP-A scatterometer pass.  The strong shear
and decreasing SSTs are likely to cause Andres to become a remnant
low later this morning and degenerate into a surface trough late 
Wednesday night.
 
The depression is moving westward, or 270/6 kt while embedded in
the low-level tradewind flow.  Vertically shallow Andres and its
remnants are expected to continue moving in this general direction
until dissipation.  The NHC track forecast is a little to the left 
of the previous one, and is close to the TVCE eastern Pacific 
consensus model.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/0900Z 15.9N 111.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  11/1800Z 15.9N 111.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  12/0600Z 15.9N 112.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  12/1800Z 15.8N 114.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts