000
WTPZ41 KNHC 110232
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Depression Andres Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012021
900 PM MDT Mon May 10 2021
 
Andres is not expected to be a tropical cyclone much longer. Earlier 
today, strong west-southwesterly shear caused the thunderstorm 
activity to be stripped away from the center, and now Andres is  
nearly devoid of deep convection.  The initial intensity is held at 
30 kt based on a combination of the latest Dvorak estimates. Andres 
is expected to become a remnant low by Tuesday morning due to a 
combination of the continued strong shear and cooler SSTs along the 
forecast track. These hostile conditions should cause the remnant 
low to dissipate in a couple of days, which is shown by the GFS, 
ECMWF, and UKMET global models.
 
After moving northwestward during the past day or two, Andres has
now turned sharply to the west due to the decoupling of the low-
and mid-level centers.  A continued westward motion at about 5 kt
is expected until the cyclone dissipates.  This forecast is located
to the south of the previous one due to the change in the initial
motion.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/0300Z 15.9N 110.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  11/1200Z 16.0N 111.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  12/0000Z 16.1N 112.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  12/1200Z 16.1N 113.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi