000
WTPZ41 KNHC 102036
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Depression Andres Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012021
300 PM MDT Mon May 10 2021
 
Hostile environmental conditions are taking a toll on Andres this 
afternoon. After a small area of convection persisted downshear of 
the cyclone's partially exposed low-level center earlier today, 
recent satellite images show rapidly warming cloud tops in the 
northeast quadrant with no signs of new convection anywhere near the 
center. Additionally, the low-level center now appears to be 
completely exposed. Although T2.5 18Z Dvorak classifications were 
received from SAB and TAFB, recent satellite trends and UW-CIMSS ADT 
estimates indicate the system has weakened since that time. 
Therefore, the intensity is lowered to 30 kt with this advisory, 
making Andres a tropical depression.

Andres appeared to take a bit of a northward jog earlier today, but 
the current estimated motion is 330/06 kt. The weakening, shallow 
cyclone is expected to turn more west-northwestward and westward on 
Tuesday and Wednesday under the influence of a building low-level 
ridge to its north. The latest track forecast is close to the center 
of the guidance envelope, with just a slight adjustment to the right 
of track from the previous forecast.

An upper-level ridge to the northwest of the cyclone is producing 
increasing vertical wind shear over Andres. This, combined with some 
drier mid-level air encroaching on the cyclone from the west, will 
continue weakening Andres through its dissipation by midweek. 
Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF suggest the 
system will struggle to generate any new convection overnight, and 
this forecast shows Andres becoming a remnant low on Tuesday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/2100Z 16.0N 109.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  11/0600Z 16.5N 110.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  11/1800Z 16.8N 111.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  12/0600Z 17.0N 112.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  12/1800Z 16.9N 113.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi