000
WTPZ41 KNHC 092035
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Storm Andres Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012021
300 PM MDT Sun May 09 2021
 
The convective cloud pattern of Andres is rather ragged-looking at
this time, and the system continues to show little evidence of
banding features.  However the cyclone is producing some very cold
cloud tops over the eastern portion of the circulation.  A partial
scatterometer pass did not show tropical-storm-force winds, but it
is believed that these could be occuring in the strong convection
to the east of the center.  The current intensity estimate remains
at 35 kt in agreement with the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB
and SAB.  The environment ahead of Andres looks very hostile, with
increasing west-southwesterly shear and dry air in the mid- to
lower-troposphere.  Therefore, a weakening trend should begin
tomorrow and the system is likely to degenerate into a remnant low
in about 48 hours which is also indicated by the global model
guidance.
 
The scatterometer observations showed that the center was somewhat
elongated zonally, but it appears to be a little south of the
previously estimated track.  Andres should move along the
southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge for the next day or
so, and then turn westward in 48-60 hours, following the low-level
steering flow.  The official track forecast is south of much of the
model guidance on account of the more southward center location.
This is not far from the latest GFS model solution.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/2100Z 14.0N 108.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z 14.7N 109.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  10/1800Z 15.2N 109.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  11/0600Z 15.6N 110.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  11/1800Z 15.8N 111.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  12/0600Z 15.9N 112.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  12/1800Z 15.9N 113.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  13/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch