000
WTPZ41 KNHC 091454
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Storm Andres Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012021
900 AM MDT Sun May 09 2021

Although the system lacks well-defined convective banding features, 
Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB are 35 kt. 
This is consistent with a data T-number based on a shear pattern 
with the low-level center displaced within 3/4 degrees to the west 
of the edge of the main area of deep convection, as suggested by 
recent microwave imagery.  Since earlier scatterometer data 
indicated that the system was close to tropical storm strength, 
and given the latest Dvorak analyses, the cyclone is being named.  
Andres is the earliest tropical storm on record in the eastern 
North Pacific basin, just beating out Adrian of 2017.  
Increasing southwesterly to westerly shear and drier air to the 
west of the cyclone should prevent any significant additional 
strengthening.  The official forecast generally follows the 
numerical guidance and shows the system degenerating into a remnant 
low in 48 hours, as in the previous advisory.

The initial motion is slowly northwestward, or 325/5.  Andres 
should move along the southwestern side of a low- to mid-level 
ridge for the next couple of days and turn westward in the 
low-level flow as an increasingly shallow circulation.  The 
official track forecast is on the southern side of the model 
guidance suite.  This also close to the latest latest corrected 
consensus, or HCCA, track.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/1500Z 14.1N 107.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  10/0000Z 14.8N 108.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  10/1200Z 15.4N 108.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  11/0000Z 15.9N 109.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  11/1200Z 16.2N 110.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  12/0000Z 16.5N 111.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  12/1200Z 16.4N 112.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  13/1200Z 16.3N 115.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch