000
WTPZ41 KNHC 161440
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162013
800 AM PDT WED OCT 16 2013
 
A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH LITTLE TO NO BANDING FEATURES
IS OCCURRING OVER AND TO THE WEST OF PRISCILLA.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN UNCHANGED.  A 0534Z
ASCAT PASS WAS A BULLSEYE PROVIDING BOTH AN ACCURATE POSITION OF
PRISCILLA AND ALSO SHOWING MULTIPLE 25-30 KT WIND VECTORS.  THE
INTENSITY ANALYSIS REMAINS 30 KT.

THE CONVECTIVE STRUGGLES OF PRISCILLA ARE MAINLY DUE TO IT
TRAVERSING LUKEWARM 26-27C WATER AND BEING EMBEDDED IN FAIRLY DRY
AIR...AS THE VERTICAL SHEAR HAS BEEN QUITE LOW.  ALONG ITS
PROJECTED PATH...HOWEVER...THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BECOME MUCH
STRONGER OUT OF THE WEST STARTING IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND THE SSTS
SHOULD GRADUALLY COOL.  THUS GRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED IN THE
INTENSITY FORECAST AS WELL AS A TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL
REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR TWO.  THIS SCENARIO IS SHOWN BY ALL OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THAT DEPICTED IN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

PRISCILLA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 7
KT...PRIMARILY THROUGH THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTHWEST.  AS THE CYCLONE COMPLETELY
LOSES ITS DEEP CONVECTION...IT WILL BE CARRIED ALONG IN THE
LOW-LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED UPON THE
TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THAT
INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/1500Z 18.1N 119.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  17/0000Z 18.4N 120.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  17/1200Z 18.6N 121.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  18/0000Z 18.5N 122.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  18/1200Z 18.4N 124.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/1200Z 18.0N 127.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA