000
WTPZ41 KNHC 020842
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112013
200 AM PDT MON SEP 02 2013
 
THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH KIKO DISSIPATED
OVERNIGHT...AND THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME A SWIRL OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO QUICKLY FALL...AND
A BLEND OF THE LATEST T- AND CI-NUMBERS SUGGEST AN INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 30 KT.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN AND
BECOME A REMNANT LOW AS IT MOVES OVER COOL WATERS AND IN A STABLE
ENVIRONMENT.  DISSIPATION OF THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST IN A DAY
OR TWO...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.

NIGHTIME VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT KIKO HAS SLOWED 
DOWN WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 335/4 KT.  THE CYCLONE
IS PREDICTED TO CONTINUE SLOWING DOWN TODAY AS IT BECOMES 
SITUATED IN AN AREA OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS.    
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0900Z 22.7N 116.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 23.2N 116.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  03/0600Z 23.5N 116.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  03/1800Z 23.7N 116.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  04/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN