000
WTPZ41 KNHC 010240
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112013
800 PM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013
 
KIKO IS CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY AT A FAST PACE.  MICROWAVE IMAGES
INDICATE THAT THE STORM HAS AN INNER CORE...AND EVEN THE LAST FEW
VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGESTED A WEAK EYE FEATURE WITHIN A MORE
SYMMETRICAL CDO.  THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 60 KT...A BIT HIGHER THAN
THE LATEST SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS...WHICH HAVE HAD A HARD TIME
KEEPING UP WITH THIS CYCLONE.  THE PACE OF STRENGTHENING SHOULD
DIMINISH SOON AS KIKO IS MOVING ACROSS COOLING WATERS...AND WILL BE
CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM WITHIN 12-24H.  AFTER THAT TIME...A MORE
STEADY DECREASE IN STRENGTH SEEMS PROBABLE DUE TO INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...COOLER WATERS...AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR
ALOFT.  THE LATEST NHC PREDICTION IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...AND THE FLORIDA STATE
SUPERENSEMBLE.  THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN
ABOUT THREE DAYS AND DISSIPATE IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS...CONSISTENT WITH
THE GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS.

KIKO HAS BEEN SURPRISINGLY MOVING A BIT EAST OF NORTH DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS...010/6.  IT APPEARS TO BE ROTATING AROUND THE EAST
SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE STORM TO
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO.  MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TAKEN A NOTABLE SHIFT TO THE EAST...AND
THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED EASTWARD BY 30-45 NMI AT MOST TIME
PERIODS ON THIS PACKAGE.  IN 36-48H...THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY
DECOUPLE VERTICALLY...AND THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS IN LIGHT LOW-LEVEL FLOW.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0300Z 20.0N 115.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 20.8N 115.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 21.6N 116.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  02/1200Z 22.2N 116.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  03/0000Z 22.3N 116.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  04/0000Z 22.2N 116.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  05/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE