000
WTPZ41 KNHC 262031
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062013
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 26 2013

FLOSSIE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS WITH A MORE SYMMETRICAL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND BETTER
DEFINED CENTRAL FEATURES ON MICROWAVE IMAGES.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET TO 50 KT...A BLEND OF THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AND AMSU ESTIMATES.  A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF
FLOSSIE SHOULD COMMENCE TOMORROW AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER
WATERS...INTO DRIER AIR ALOFT...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SHEAR.  MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  ALL
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...NOW SHOW 
FLOSSIE DISSIPATING WEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BY 120H DUE TO
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.

FLOSSIE CONTINUES MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST...NOW 285/17.  THERE
HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING WITH A FIRM RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  THE STORM SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TO THE
WEST IN 24-48H AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT.  THE LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTH...BUT IS NOW TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
AROUND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THUS...NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE NHC TRACK FORECAST. 
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/2100Z 16.5N 134.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  27/0600Z 17.1N 136.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  27/1800Z 17.9N 140.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  28/0600Z 18.6N 143.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  28/1800Z 19.1N 146.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  29/1800Z 19.5N 152.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  30/1800Z 19.5N 158.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  31/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE