000
WTPZ41 KNHC 171444
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012
800 AM PDT WED OCT 17 2012

THERE HAS BEEN NO CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF PAUL SINCE ABOUT
0200 UTC.  THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATION OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS WAS FROM AN OSCAT OVERPASS ABOUT 8 HOURS AGO...AND GIVEN THE
LACK OF CONVECTION AND LAND INTERACTION SINCE THAT TIME IT IS
ESTIMATED THAT PAUL HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  A
COMBINATION OF STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...AND CONTINUED LAND INTERACTION SHOULD CAUSE PAUL TO
DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.  THE LOW SHOULD
DISSIPATE COMPLETELY IN 36-48 HOURS AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO A
DEVELOPING TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

THE CENTER OF PAUL IS MOVING PARALLEL TO AND VERY NEAR THE COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL SUR WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 315/10.  THE
TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES...AND THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/1500Z 27.0N 114.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  18/0000Z 28.0N 115.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  18/1200Z 29.3N 117.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  19/0000Z 30.5N 120.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN