000
WTPZ41 KNHC 170840
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012
200 AM PDT WED OCT 17 2012
 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN STRIPPED AWAY DUE TO 30-35 KT OF
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER...RECENT MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SHALLOW CONVECTION AND A ROBUST LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL VORTEX STILL EXISTS...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN 
THAT PAUL WAS NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH JUST 24 HOURS AGO.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A BLEND OF CONSENSUS DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...ADT DATA-T
VALUES...AND MICROWAVE WIND DATA. WIND RADII IN THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE ARE BASED ON A 17/0427Z ASCAT PARTIAL OVERPASS.

THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION ESTIMATE OF 325/11 KT ARE BASED
PRIMARILY ON RECENT MICROWAVE FIXES. OTHERWISE...THERE ARE NO
CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. PAUL SHOULD
MOVE NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...CROSSING THE BAJA
SPUR IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...AND THEN TURN WESTWARD AS THE WEAKENING
TROPICAL STORM MOVES WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF A LARGER
LOW-LATITUDE CYCLONE THAT IS LOCATED ABOUT 300 N MI SOUTHWEST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA. BOTH PAUL AND THE LARGER CYCLONE ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH PAUL DISSIPATING OR
BECOMING ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY JUST AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 24C SHOULD
CONTINUE TO CAUSE PAUL TO WEAKEN. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PAUL COULD
WEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AND TOTALLY DISSIPATE IN
24-36 HOURS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AND FOLLOWS THE WEAKENING TRENDS OF THE DECAY-SHIPS AND
LGEM MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/0900Z 26.4N 113.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  17/1800Z 27.5N 114.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  18/0600Z 28.6N 117.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  18/1800Z 29.8N 119.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART