000
WTPZ41 KNHC 162041
TCDEP1
 
HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012
200 PM PDT TUE OCT 16 2012
 
STRONG WIND SHEAR HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER PAUL...AND THE LOW-
LEVEL CENTER IS RAPIDLY BECOMING SEPARATED FROM THE CONVECTION.
GIVEN THE DETERIORATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 65 KNOTS. THESE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS
ARE PROBABLY CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER
AND ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. WITH THE CURRENT SHEAR
AND THE INTERACTION WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN...WEAKENING IS
FORECAST...AND PAUL WILL PROBABLY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN
ABOUT 36 HOURS OR EARLIER.
 
AFTER A RAPID MOTION TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING...PAUL HAS SLOWED
DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH AT ONLY 13
KNOTS. THIS SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WAS ACTUALLY
ANTICIPATED BY MODELS AND INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. PAUL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED NORTHWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AROUND A CUTOFF LOW LOCATED
SOUTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE UNTIL DISSIPATION. THIS TRACK WILL KEEP
PAUL OR ITS REMANTS OVER OR NEAR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FOR
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
 
GIVEN THE RAPID WEAKENING TREND...THE HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY
BE DISCONTINUED AND BE REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING LATER
TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/2100Z 24.7N 112.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  17/0600Z 26.5N 112.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 24H  17/1800Z 28.0N 113.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 36H  18/0600Z 29.0N 115.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  18/1800Z 29.5N 117.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA