000
WTPZ41 KNHC 161442
TCDEP1
 
HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012
800 AM PDT TUE OCT 16 2012
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT PAUL WAS MOVING TOWARD BAJA
CALIFORNIA FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...AND THAT PROMPTED AN
SPECIAL ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING.  THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE
INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 015 DEGREES AT 17
KNOTS. PAUL IS BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW BETWEEN A HIGH OVER MEXICO
AND A CUTOFF LOW WEST OF PAUL. AS THE CUTOFF LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD...
PAUL SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AROUND THE LOW AND
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS TRACK SHOULD KEEP A
WEAKENING PAUL OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR A DAY OR TWO. MOST OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH THIS SOLUTION...AND THE NHC
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE ECMWF MODELS.
 
ALTHOUGH THE EYE IS NO LONGER VISIBLE ON CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY...MICROWAVE DATA SUGGESTS THAT IT IS HIDDEN UNDER THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.
THIS IS AN INDICATION THAT A WEAKENING PROCESS HAS ALREADY BEGUN.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 90 KNOTS...AND ALTHOUGH
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A
HURRICANE AND REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN
AND COOL WATERS WILL RESULT IN WEAKENING...AND PAUL IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AND WEAKEN TO A
REMNANT LOW AFTERWARD. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/1500Z 23.8N 112.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  17/0000Z 25.8N 111.9W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND
 24H  17/1200Z 27.0N 112.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 36H  18/0000Z 28.5N 114.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  18/1200Z 29.5N 116.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  19/1200Z 31.3N 121.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA