000
WTPZ41 KNHC 160849
TCDEP1
 
HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 16 2012
 
ALTHOUGH THE EYE OF PAUL HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT IN RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGES...CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THE EYE HAVE COOLED AND
THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY SYMMETRIC. DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS WERE UNCHANGED THIS CYCLE...AND SUPPORT MAINTAINING
THE INITIAL WIND SPEED AT 95 KT.
 
PAUL IS MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...020/17...STEERED BY
THE FLOW TO THE EAST OF A SHARP MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. A TURN
TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH CUTS OFF
TO THE WEST OF PAUL. AFTER THAT...A SLOWER NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS
FORECAST AS THE WEAKENING CYCLONE MOVES AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE LOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
TAKES THE CENTER OF PAUL NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BAJA
PENNISULA LATER TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...ECMWF...GFDL...AND UKMET MODELS.
 
MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE VORTEX IS TILTED TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH HEIGHT...LIKELY DUE TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR. IN ADDITION...VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE HURRICANE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY TILTED
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE SHEAR PICKS UP. THIS INCREASE
IN SHEAR...ALONG WITH DRIER MORE STABLE AIR...SHOULD CAUSE PAUL TO
WEAKEN SOME ON ITS APPROACH TO THE BAJA PENNISULA. HOWEVER...PAUL
IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER
BAJA. AFTER INTERACTING WITH LAND...ABRUPT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
AND PAUL WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IT LIES AT THE HIGH
END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/0900Z 21.9N 112.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  16/1800Z 23.8N 112.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  17/0600Z 25.9N 112.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  17/1800Z 27.3N 113.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 48H  18/0600Z 28.6N 115.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  19/0600Z 31.0N 120.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  20/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART