000 WTPZ41 KNHC 160256 TCDEP1 HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012 800 PM PDT MON OCT 15 2012 AFTER RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING EARLIER TODAY...PAUL ALREADY APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE COLD RING SURROUNDING THE CENTER HAS WARMED...AND THE EYE HAS FILLED IN DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE UNANIMOUSLY T5.0/5.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE FINAL-T NUMBERS FROM THE UW-CIMSS ADT HAVE FALLEN TO T5.3. BASED ON THESE NUMBERS...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 95 KT. PAUL HAS BEEN ACCELERATING AND NOW HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF 015/15 KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARP MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BEGINNING TO CLOSE OFF TO THE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND THE FLOW TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE IS CAUSING PAUL TO MOVE FASTER TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE COMPLETELY CUT OFF IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...LEAVING PAUL IN A COL REGION OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD BY DAYS 2 AND 3. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 24 AND 48 HOURS...AND NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS NOW SHOW PAUL MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE HWRF IS THE OUTLIER AMONG THE PACK BY SHOWING PAUL MOVING INLAND ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...INSTEAD OF SHOWING THE CYCLONE MOVING BACK TO THE WEST OVER THE PACIFIC. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED EASTWARD DURING THE FIRST 2 DAYS BUT IS NOT AS FAR EAST AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE...WHICH IS BEING INFLUENCED BY THE HWRF. THE EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS PAUL OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATERS UP UNTIL LANDFALL. HOWEVER...DEEP-LAYER SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING TO ABOUT 30 KT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND SHOULD TAKE A SIGNIFICANT TOLL ON THE HURRICANE. IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY EXACTLY WHAT INTENSITY PAUL WILL HAVE WHEN IT REACHES THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST...BUT ENOUGH OF THE MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE SHIPS AND LGEM...SUGGEST THAT PAUL COULD STILL BE A HURRICANE AT LANDFALL. THE NHC FORECAST THEREFORE SHOWS PAUL MAKING LANDFALL AS A 65-KT HURRICANE BUT THEN SHOWS RAPID WEAKENING ON DAYS 2 AND 3. PAUL SHOULD BE A REMNANT LOW...OR COMPLETELY DISSIPATED...BY 72 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 20.0N 113.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 22.2N 112.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 24.8N 112.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 26.7N 112.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 48H 18/0000Z 28.1N 113.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 19/0000Z 30.5N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG/PASCH