000
WTPZ41 KNHC 150854
TCDEP1
 
HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012
200 AM PDT MON OCT 15 2012
 
PAUL IS ON A STRENGTHENING TREND. THE CYCLONE IS PRODUCING CLOUD
TOPS AS COLD AS -85C NEAR THE CENTER WITH BANDING FEATURES EVIDENT
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE
THAT INNER CORE OF PAUL HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH THE
EYEWALL WIDENING ON THE WEST SIDE. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE
T4.0/65 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND ON THIS BASIS THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 65 KT...MAKING PAUL A CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS AS THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT WHILE THE
HURRICANE IS OVER 26C TO 28C WATERS. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS
ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BEGINNING TONIGHT...AND THAT
COMBINED WITH STABLE AIR AND COOLER WATER SHOULD CAUSE PAUL TO LOSE
STRENGTH. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.
 
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT IN THE FLOW BETWEEN
A RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW A FEW HUNDRED N
MI WEST OF THE BAJA PENNISULA. THIS MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
CAUSING PAUL TO ACCELERATE NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
BAJA CALIFORNIA. IN 2 TO 3 DAYS...THE WEAKENING SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL
LOW. DISSIPATION IS NOW SHOWN BY DAY 4...IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF
THE MODELS. THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST THIS CYCLE...AND
THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ABOUT 30 N MI IN THAT DIRECTION.
 
THE EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK FORECAST REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. USERS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST
TRACK AS TYPICAL NHC FORECAST ERRORS ARE ABOUT 80 N MI AT 48 HOURS.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0900Z 16.2N 114.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z 18.0N 114.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  16/0600Z 20.2N 113.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  16/1800Z 22.8N 113.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  17/0600Z 24.8N 113.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  18/0600Z 27.5N 116.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART